January 13-21 Weather Trends

Weather Trends for the Lunar Phase

This Full Moon phase kicks off with moisture-heavy conditions like rain, snow, or fog, particularly in southern and coastal regions. As the week progresses, expect unstable weather patterns to develop, bringing wind, fluctuating wet and dry conditions, and even icy precipitation in colder areas. Late in the phase, storm intensity ramps up with sudden temperature changes and severe precipitation likely. Be prepared for a dynamic mix of wet weather, shifting temperatures, and increased storm activity.

Lunar Phase Chart for Casper, Wyoming

Key Patterns for the Lunar Phase

1. Moisture-Heavy Conditions
   The Cancer Ascendant points to increased precipitation, including rain, snow, or fog, particularly early in the phase. Venus conjunct the Midheaven in Pisces supports steady rain or snow rather than extreme storms during daytime hours.

2. Cool, Dry Air Systems
   The Capricorn Descendant conjunct Mercury indicates cooler, drier air moving in from the west. Mercury suggests these systems will interact with wetter conditions, bringing wind and fluctuating temperatures.

3. Cold and Prolonged Weather
   Saturn in Pisces conjunct the MC introduces cold air, increasing the likelihood of freezing rain, snow, or icy conditions, particularly in southern regions. Saturn’s presence suggests these systems may linger longer than usual.

4. Unstable Patterns
   Jupiter in Gemini retrograde forms a T-square with the MC in Pisces, creating instability. Expect shifts between wet and windy conditions, especially in the south and west.

5. Amplified Storm Activity
   Mars retrograde in Cancer trine Neptune in Pisces enhances the potential for moisture-heavy storms, with warm, humid air feeding into Neptune’s precipitation. The retrograde motion of Mars may delay the buildup, with storm intensity peaking later in the phase.

6. Sudden Temperature Shifts
   The Sun in Capricorn trine Uranus retrograde in Taurus introduces rapid changes in temperature or weather conditions. This alignment intensifies storm activity where warm, moist air clashes with cold fronts.

What to Expect

• Early Phase: Moisture-heavy conditions dominate, with rain, snow, or fog likely in southern and coastal regions. Wet conditions will remain steady but mild during this period.

• Mid-Phase: Unstable weather emerges, with windy patterns and fluctuating wet and dry conditions. Cold air and moisture interaction could lead to icy precipitation or freezing rain, particularly in southern areas.

• Late Phase: Storm intensity increases as warm, humid air interacts with cooler systems. Sudden temperature changes and severe precipitation are expected, driven by the Mars-Neptune and Sun-Uranus trines.

Weather Trends for the Lunar Phase (January 13–21)

During this lunar phase, a mix of cold air dominance, dynamic wind patterns, and shifting precipitation levels were anticipated. Early on, moisture-heavy conditions with snow, fog, and freezing temperatures were forecast. As the phase progressed, wind patterns were expected to drive instability, combining with cold air systems to produce icy or snowy conditions mid-phase. Toward the end of the phase, clashes between cold fronts and residual moisture were predicted to intensify storm activity and bring dramatic weather changes.

Key Weather Patterns for the Phase

Moisture-Heavy Conditions

The Cancer Ascendant pointed to early precipitation, such as snow, fog, or damp conditions. These moisture-heavy patterns were predicted to dominate during the initial days of the phase.

Dynamic Wind Patterns

The Midheaven square Mercury in Sagittarius suggested erratic and intensified wind systems. This instability was expected to combine with cold air to create wind-driven storms and shifting weather conditions.

Cold, Prolonged Weather

The Saturn conjunction with the Midheaven in Pisces highlighted freezing rain, icy conditions, and sustained cold air systems lingering throughout the phase, particularly in colder regions like Casper.

Clash of Warm and Cold Air

The Sun trine Uranus and Mars trine Neptune were indicative of warm, moisture-laden air meeting colder systems from the west. These aspects suggested rapid temperature changes and potential for amplified storm activity late in the phase.

What to Expect This Phase

• Early Phase: Moisture-heavy conditions with snow, fog, or dampness dominating, particularly in southern areas. Precipitation was expected to remain steady but mild.

• Mid-Phase: Unstable weather patterns with fluctuating winds and shifting wet-to-dry conditions. Wind-driven systems were forecast to bring icy precipitation or snow.

• Late Phase: Clashes between cold fronts and moisture-laden air were expected to heighten storm intensity, with significant precipitation, high winds, and rapid temperature shifts.

Prediction vs. Observed Data Fact-Check

Added Jan 21 2025

Prediction: Early Phase (Moisture-Heavy Conditions)

• Forecast: Snow, fog, and damp conditions, with precipitation likely dominating the early days.

• Observed:

  • January 14: No precipitation recorded, but humidity remained high (74% max). Snow depth steady at 1 inch.

  • January 16–17: Light snow observed on January 17 (0.5 inches), with fog and high humidity (100% max). Snow depth increased to 2 inches.

• Fact-Check: Partially accurate. While moisture-heavy conditions like fog and snow were present, precipitation was not as dominant as predicted. Early conditions were drier than forecast.

Prediction: Mid-Phase (Wind-Driven Instability, Storms)

• Forecast: Erratic winds interacting with colder systems to drive storms and icy precipitation.

• Observed:

  • January 15: Winds peaked at 43 mph, with blowing snow and average humidity at 66%. No precipitation recorded.

  • January 16–17: Winds remained strong (gusts up to 37 mph), with light snow and blowing conditions observed.

• Fact-Check: Accurate. Mid-phase was marked by strong, erratic winds and light snow, matching the forecast of wind-driven instability.

Prediction: Late Phase (Clash of Cold and Moisture, Intense Storms)

• Forecast: Intense storms, high winds, and temperature shifts due to clashing air systems.

• Observed:

  • January 18: Temperatures fluctuated, with a high of 10°F and a low of -14°F. Light snow was observed, but storm activity was minimal.

  • January 19–20: Significant cold air dominance occurred, with lows reaching -25°F on January 20. Winds peaked at 32 mph but storm intensity remained low.

• Fact-Check: Partially accurate. While temperature shifts and cold air dominance were observed, storm activity was less dramatic than predicted.

Key Metrics Validation

• Snowfall: Predicted early and mid-phase moisture was partially observed. Snowfall totals were below average for the period, with light snow recorded on select days.

• Wind Patterns: Strong and erratic winds matched predictions, with gusts peaking at 43 mph on January 15.

• Temperature Shifts: Late-phase temperature drops aligned with forecasts, with lows reaching -25°F on January 20.

Outcome Summary

• Accuracy: The forecast captured key trends such as early moisture, mid-phase wind instability, and late-phase cold air dominance. However, precipitation was overestimated, and storm intensity was less dramatic than expected.

• Improvements: Late-phase predictions for severe storm activity could be adjusted to reflect a more tempered forecast for regions like Casper.

The observed data validated much of the forecast's broad themes, especially regarding wind patterns and temperature shifts, but precipitation was less significant than anticipated.